SAGE Advice: Holiday Spending Watch 2007 - Santa Might Take a Vacation
Posted: 12/14/2007 | By: Leo Shapiro, Steve Yahn, and Erik Shapiro
He?s making a list, checking out warm places to go and relax, because his gift load looks to be unusually light this year.
Our December Leo J. Shapiro and Associates national poll indicates that the percent of consumers planning to spend less this year than last ticks up a point from November to 53 percent. This is 13 points higher than December 2006, when only 42 percent planned on spending less for the holidays.
Although the percent planning to spend more this year moves up three points from November to 22 percent, this is still two points below last year in December, when 24 percent planned on spending more.
There are indications that the national attitude is easing. Worries about inflation ease considerably, as the percent worried about high prices drops 13 points from last month to a still considerable 67 percent.
The percent reporting increased income moves up three points from last month?s 44 percent.
But also, the percent who feel their overall financial situation is better than a year ago drops three points to 33 percent in December, the lowest level in over three years.
So the CBI [Consumer Balance Index], which tracks how consumers view the balance between the rate at which they are spending and their ability to spend, ticks down a point to 92. This is the first time in the past two years that the CBI has stayed below 95 for two consecutive months.
Bottom Line
Consumers are feeling a little better because they plan to spend a lot less. Pre-Christmas spending is likely to be cautious and measured.
The tendency for the holiday spending season to extend past December 25 will grow. So the gains in consumer optimism are likely to result more in post-Christmas spending as cautious family financial managers weigh the real costs and emotional benefits and put off until later what they could have bought, more expensively, now.
Newspaper ad sellers should be working with their customers right now to prepare effective, inventory-clearing post-Christmas ad campaigns.
Our December Leo J. Shapiro and Associates national poll indicates that the percent of consumers planning to spend less this year than last ticks up a point from November to 53 percent. This is 13 points higher than December 2006, when only 42 percent planned on spending less for the holidays.
Although the percent planning to spend more this year moves up three points from November to 22 percent, this is still two points below last year in December, when 24 percent planned on spending more.
There are indications that the national attitude is easing. Worries about inflation ease considerably, as the percent worried about high prices drops 13 points from last month to a still considerable 67 percent.
The percent reporting increased income moves up three points from last month?s 44 percent.
But also, the percent who feel their overall financial situation is better than a year ago drops three points to 33 percent in December, the lowest level in over three years.
So the CBI [Consumer Balance Index], which tracks how consumers view the balance between the rate at which they are spending and their ability to spend, ticks down a point to 92. This is the first time in the past two years that the CBI has stayed below 95 for two consecutive months.
Bottom Line
Consumers are feeling a little better because they plan to spend a lot less. Pre-Christmas spending is likely to be cautious and measured.
The tendency for the holiday spending season to extend past December 25 will grow. So the gains in consumer optimism are likely to result more in post-Christmas spending as cautious family financial managers weigh the real costs and emotional benefits and put off until later what they could have bought, more expensively, now.
Newspaper ad sellers should be working with their customers right now to prepare effective, inventory-clearing post-Christmas ad campaigns.