‘E&P’ Prediction on Swing States Comes True, With One (Big) Exception

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By: E&P Staff

Who says editorial endorsements mean nothing? Well, some will, since Sen. John Kerry gained every large paper in Florida (except The Tampa Tribune, which sat it out), and still lost the popular vote.

On the other hand, in our Monday preview, E&P accurately guessed the outcome in 15 other battleground states, strictly on the basis of how newspaper endorsements fell in each state. We certainly had a better night than the exit pollsters and John Zogby, who at 5 p.m. on Tuesday announced Kerry would win by a electoral-vote tally of 311-213.

We even nailed Ohio. We also got right: Minnesota, New Hampshire, Hawaii, West Virginia, Michigan, New Mexico, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Oregon, Washington, and Maine. The only blunder: Florida.

On Ohio, we observed that President Bush had gotten the nod from The Columbus Dispatch (a key to victory?), earned a no-decision from The Plain Dealer in Cleveland, and dominated in Cincinnati, Canton, and Youngstown.

We closed our Ohio pick with: “A slight nod to Bush, at least until the court cases begin.”

In giving Florida to Kerry, we declard that this would give him the victory by 286 electoral votes to Bush’s 252, but we noted that if Florida went to Bush, “he wins.”

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