A Circulation Chill on the Hot Latino Press

By: Mark Fitzgerald For Spanish-language newspapers, the latest Audit Bureau of Circulations (ABC) FAS-FAX report raises the question of whether 'el vaso' is half-full or half-empty.

On the one hand, in a reporting period when overall daily circulation was down 0.1%, according to an analysis of the FAS-FAX by the Newspaper Association of America, the results of the few paid Spanish-language dailies old enough to qualify for an ABC audit looked great by comparison.

But on the other hand, compared to their past performances, Spanish-language papers did rather poorly this time around. In fact, this is the third consecutive ABC reporting period in which Spanish-language dailies have posted underwhelming numbers. The irony, of course, is that these relatively unimpressive results come precisely at the moment that mainstream newspapers, big chains and newly formed groups are jumping into Spanish-language publishing with both feet.

Now, wait, you may say, 'unimpressive' numbers? With 109,598 copies, Tribune Co.'s national daily Hoy was up 20.2% over the same period in 2003. La Opini?n in Los Angeles is still the nation's biggest Spanish-language daily with a circulation of 125,628. It posted an increase over last year of 1.1% -- a percentage increase greater than 17 of the 20 biggest U.S. English-language dailies.

A look behind the gains, however, takes a little of the shine off the numbers. Hoy's gain of 18,442 copies came during a period that for the first time included its edition in Chicago and, for three weeks anyway, its edition in Los Angeles. La Opini?n, which last year purposely chose to grow a little slower, this reporting period launched a major marketing campaign and a circulation-boosting contest. Not so long ago, both papers grew at rates that were faster than the increase in their market's Hispanic population.

The results of the nation's two other major Spanish-language dailies need no explanation. The Miami Herald's Spanish-language sibling, El Nuevo Herald, used to be the fastest-growing paper in Knight Ridder. This time around it was just plain flat, gaining only 214 copies, or 0.2%, over last the last year. El Diario/La Prensa in New York City actually went backward, losing 4.9% of its circulation. It now sells 50,019 copies daily in a city that the 2000 U.S. Census says has 2,160,554 Hispanics.

Clearly, Spanish-language newspaper publishers are beginning to focus on circulation. Just a day after the FAS-FAX was released, the National Association of Hispanic Publications (NAHP) Foundation began soliciting bids for a major research project intended to help Hispanic publishers and media buyers better exploit audited circulation and distribution results.

"Through this research we'll present current and unique findings that unquestionably will maximize the utility of circulation audits to minority-owned publications in large, medium and small media markets," Tom Oliver, Executive Director and CEO of NAHP Foundation, said in a statement.

The research effort, sponsored by the Verizon Foundation, is a continuation of NAHP's "Audit Means Money" circulation program, which was launched last year to "grow better business practices among Hispanic publishers who have not undertaken circulation audit in the past two years," foundation Chairman Eddie Escobedo said.

It's far too early to say that this period's FAS-FAX results suggest that newspapers targeting Spanish-language readers are running out of steam. More likely, it demonstrates just how much untapped potential remains in the Latino market -- and how newspapers will have to earn those readers the way they do in the general market, one at a time.

The real test will come a couple of years when the new generation of Spanish-language dailies are up and running for a little while. We'll see different approaches to the market, with varying mixes of editorial and packaging. Perhaps then, too, we'll see a return to the robust circulation gains of a few years ago.