By: Lucia Moses Coen: Newspaper Ad Spending To Grow Only 1%
Veteran advertising forecaster Robert J. Coen slashed his
predictions for 2001 U.S. media spending, projecting that local
ad spending in newspapers will increase a scant 1% with total ad
spending in all media rising only 2.5%.
Coen, forecasting director for Universal McCann, who updates his
forecast twice yearly, projected total ad spending to hit $249
billion, with newspapers getting $42 billion in local
advertising.
Coen's forecast was down significantly from his last projection
in December. Then, he looked for total ad spending to hit 5.8%,
compared with 9.6% growth in 2000, and local newspaper
advertising to be up 4%.
Since then, he said, economic expectations have declined more
than expected after eight years of solid growth.
"The economic climate hasn't turned around as everybody thought
likely," Coen said. "It's persisting, and necessitates a revision
in the downward direction."
Citing the weakening economy and demise of the dot-coms, he now
expects national advertising to grow 2.1% to $151 billion instead
of 6.3% as earlier predicted, with newspapers up 1% in the
category instead of 7%.
In retail, he said that with continued weakness in the category,
local ad spending should rise 3.1% this year in all media, with
newspapers up 1%.
For 2002, he predicted the environment to turn brighter. Total
media ad spending should hit $262 billion next year, a 5%
increase, Coen said.
Lucia Moses (lmoses@editorandpublisher.com) is an associate editor covering business for E&P.
Copyright 2001, Editor & Publisher.
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