Analysts Expect April Ad Results Will Be 'Flat to Down'

Posted Wednesday, May 10, 2006 12:00 am

By: Jennifer Saba Next week publishers will begin posting April ad revenue and the results will likely be soft.

Goldman Sachs estimates industry ad revenue will be flat to down, 0% to 1%. In March, ad revenue grew 0.5%; year-to-date it?s barely up 0.2%.

Newspapers can partly place blame on Easter, which fell in April. Typically the holiday is good for retail advertising but bad for classifieds. And the way things have been going lately, classified advertising has been the one positive thing going for ad results ? national has been ?deteriorating? and retail has been ?anemic,? according to Goldman Sachs.

Gannett, Journal Communications, and McClatchy are forecasted by Goldman Sachs to lag the group. The New York Times Co. will most likely report strong results for its flagship while Boston continues to drag down overall results. E.W. Scripps and Dow Jones should turn in strong ad revenue.

While Goldman Sachs doesn?t think April?s decline is dramatic, the research firm raises bigger flags. ?Our recurring question,? said a note released today, ?If publishers are struggling to post flat revenue when the economy is robust, what happens when the economy slows? The answer does not bode well for revenue growth over the next several years.?

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Analysts Expect April Ad Results Will Be 'Flat to Down'

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