AP Lists Top Likely Candidates to Succeed O'Connor on Court

By: President Bush's choice to fill the vacancy of retiring Justice Sandra Day O'Connor will ignite a political inferno no matter whom he picks. Since O'Connor was a frequent swing vote on major cases, Bush's appointment is all but certain to change the dynamics of the high court.

The change is likely to be even more pronounced than if the retirement announcement had been for ailing Chief Justice William Rehnquist, who has been predictably conservative.

Both sides and their well-bankrolled special interest allies are poised to plunge into the fray.

A confirmation battle over O'Connor's successor, "that's where the rubber really hits the road," said presidential historian Allan Lichtman of American University. "She's one of the most powerful people in America, because she's the swing vote in so many cases."

For years, both parties have been spoiling for a Supreme Court fight.

It's been more than a decade since the last vacancy. Partisan animosities are at a fever pitch, and Bush has become one of the most divisive presidents in recent history.

Interest groups, still pumped up from the 2004 presidential race, have taken to skilled -- and sometimes massive -- use of the airwaves and the Internet to get their messages across, from e-mail outpourings to broadcast ads and appearances on 24-hour cable news and talk radio shows.

Republican groups have said they will spend more than $18 million promoting a successor.

The pitched battles fought by Republicans and Democrats over previous Bush judicial appointments were seen by those on both sides of the political divide as warmups, dress rehearsals for inevitable Supreme Court confirmation fights to come.

Unless Rehnquist also announces his retirement, there won't be a second confirmation battle this time over a new chief justice.

Still, the debate could tie up the Senate for months and undercut Bush's efforts to win passage of a Social Security overhaul and other major parts of his domestic agenda.

It is the first nomination since President Clinton named Stephen G. Breyer to the court in 1994.

Bush also seems likely to have at least one, and possibly two, more court vacancies to fill in the remainder of his presidency.

Rehnquist, 80, is suffering from thyroid cancer. And Justice John Paul Stevens, a liberal, is 85.

Bush must decide if he wants to go for a hard-line conservative now, or name a more politically moderate person -- such as Attorney General Allberto R. Gonzales -- who might be easier to confirm, and wait for the next vacancy to make a more conservative choice.

Others mentioned in speculation are U.S. Appeals Court Judges J. Michael Luttig and J. Harvie Wilkinson III, both of the 4th Circuit Appeals Court in Richmond, Va..

Others mentioned frequently are Judges John Roberts of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, Michael McConnell of the 10th Circuit and Samuel Alito of the 3rd Circuit.

Also: former Solicitor General Theodore Olson, former Deputy Attorney General Larry Thompson, Judge Edith Jones of the 5th Circuit and Judge Danny Boggs of the 6th Circuit.