By: John Consoli (
Mediaweek.com) Overall advertising in the U.S. will increase 2.1% in 2002, to $236.2 billion, according to updated projections by Bob Coen, senior vice president, director of forecasting at Universal McCann.
National advertising will be up 1.9%, to $144.56 billion, while local advertising will be up 2.4%, to $91.68 billion, Coen said in his semi-annual report released Wednesday morning.
The Big Four TV networks will take in $15.3 billion in 2002 advertising, up 7% over 2001. Spot TV advertising will rise 7.5%, to $9.9 billion. Cable TV advertising, however, will take a hit, down 3.5%, to $11.4 billion. National radio ad revenue will be up 6%, to $3.8 billion; national newspaper advertising will be up 2%, to $6.7 billion, while national magazine ads will be down 1%, to $3.8 billion, Coen predicts.
In his first projections for 2003, Coen predicts national advertising in the U.S. will rise 5.5%, to $249.2 billion.
"Last year's economic slowdown and the collapse of many Internet and other high-tech business sectors have continued to depress ad demand in a number of media," Coen said. "However, continued improvement in the economy and much better ad revenue comparisons in the second half of this year should offset some of these forces."
Cable TV overall has had the toughest go during the first quarter, with ad revenues down 13.8%. Coen said magazine advertising, while still depressed, is turning around gradually. During the month of May, ad pages were down only 10.8%, compared to 25.7% last December. Ad revenue for magazines in the first quarter was up 0.6%.
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