Expert on Lincoln-Douglas Debate Picks a Winner in Bush-Kerry

By: Charles Geraci When it comes to experts on high-level political debates at critical times, few can top David Zarefsky. The Northwestern University professor, dean of its School of Speech from 1988 to 2000, is a nationally recognized authority on rhetoric and forensics and author of the award-winning 1991 book "Lincoln, Douglas, and Slavery: In the Crucible of Public Debate."

Last night, he watched the Bush-Kerry showdown with about 100 students in Northwestern's Communications Residential College. So who does this debate expert think won? Kerry, Zarefsky says, but not by an overwhelming margin.

"Kerry needed to convey the impression that he would be a competent commander in chief, and he accomplished that," Zarefsky said. "The burden of this debate was on Kerry. He has established more of a level playing field.

"Kerry won on style," he told E&P. "He appeared confident, concise, and forceful."

Though Zarefsky gave the edge to Kerry, he doesn't think public opinion will change much in the days ahead. "Kerry will get a little bounce from this debate," he said. "The places where he's running three to five points behind will come closer to evening up to the margin of error."

He noted that Bush did a good job taking "a small number of themes and returning to them again and again." But he said many times the president "did not answer the questions put to him or did not respond to the specific points that Kerry made."

Zarefsky said Kerry did outline a clear Iraq policy but added, "I'm not sure that he made it as sharp as he needed to." He believes Kerry dealt with the "flip-flop" label only marginally and thinks the senator would be better served by directly refuting the charge.

Zarefsky offered advice for both candidates.

"For Bush, I'd say don't be so quick to ask for 30 second follow-up when you're not sure what you want to say," Zarefsky cautioned. His advice for Kerry: "Try to get a balance between attacking Bush's record and clearly explaining what he would do. Tonight, Kerry tilted a little more toward attacking Bush's record."

Before the debate, Zarefsky thought Bush would win the election, but now he thinks it's too close to call.