By: E&P Staff It may be an understatement to observe that the newspaper industry as well as outside analysts are nervously awaiting the release of the next FAS-FAX from the Audit Bureau of Circulations on Monday. The report, which will cover the six-month period ending Sept. 30, 2005, arrives at a brand new time: 8 a.m. ET.
The previous FAS-FAX, earlier this year, set off landmines with its report of steep declines at many papers, most prominently some top Tribune Co. properties.
What's likely coming on Monday? A repeat of the spring experience appears likely, based on recent Q3 earnings calls and other information that has quietly emerged, as newspapers continue to shake out lower quality circ. Year-over-year comparisons will finally ease with next spring's FAS-FAX.
What we know so far:
McClatchy is breaking its 20-year winning streak this period. Daily circulation dropped around 1% while there was a "steeper decline" on Sunday.
Knight Ridder said overall circulation for the company decreased about 2% for daily copies and about 3.5% for Sunday copies.
At Belo, The Dallas Morning News reported that for the six months ending September 2005, daily and Sunday circulation dropped 7% compared with the same period a year ago. Executives attribute the decline to a "disruption in circulation processes" since September 2004 and the fact that it was implementing new systems.
The Providence (R.I.) Journal reported daily and Sunday circ is down 2%. The Press-Enterprise in Riverside, Calif., also experienced a drop. Daily is down around 3% and Sunday is down around 4%.
The Boston Globe's circulation plummeted this period. Daily circ dropped 7.7% and Sunday circ is down 7%. Executives said the Globe is managing down its "other paid" circulation.
The New York Times reported tiny gains with daily up 0.4% and Sunday up 0.1%. The increases came mostly from the paper's national effort. Circulation for the New York City area declined. This is similar to the last FAS-FAX.
The Wall Street Journal reported slight gains due to increases in online subscriptions.
The Tribune Co. expects an overall decline of 4% for daily and Sunday copies -- excluding Newsday. Individually paid copies for both daily and Sunday also declined 3.5%. Other paid circulation for Tribune is under 5% both daily and Sunday.
When one analyst asked for circulation figures for The Sun in Baltimore and the Los Angeles Times -- two papers that experienced some of the biggest drops in the spring -- executives declined to break out the numbers.
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