Few Circ Gains, More Losses in New FAS-FAX

By: Jennifer Saba One circulation director neatly summed up what the fall numbers would look like when contacted about the rumor of possible gains at his paper: "Is it April Fools?" he quipped.

As E&P goes to press, the Audit Bureau of Circulations is about to release circ data for the six-month period ending September 2006. The top-line number, sources said, looks as dismal as the past periods: For all the reporting papers, daily circulation dropped around 2.5% and Sunday slipped approximately 3%.

Will this downward trend ever turn around? "I'd be surprised if it started to rise," says John Morton, a newspaper analyst with Morton Research. "The fundamental problem is that young people are not picking up the paper."

Some papers announced results before the FAS-FAX release. The Dallas Morning News said daily circulation fell 13%, while Sunday declined 12%. The Providence (R.I.) Journal reported losses in daily (down 2.5%), and Sunday (down 8%). The Press-Enterprise in Riverside, Calif., experienced daily declines of 4%. At The News & Observer in Raleigh, N.C., daily circ is flat. The Modesto (Calif.) Bee lost 2.1% of its daily circulation. Sunday was down 2%.

But there were some gainers: The Indianapolis Star grew its daily circulation by 1.3% by converting metro Sunday-only subscribers to a Thursday/Sunday frequency. Sunday eked out an increase of 89 copies. The Courier-Journal in Louisville, Ky., is up a tad (around 0.6%) on weekdays. Sunday is down though, around 2%. The Saint Paul (Minn.) Pioneer Press also said it increased its daily and Sunday circ by 0.2%.

As expected, many of the losses stem from publishers weeding out other-paid circulation. Janet Robinson, CEO of The New York Times Co., said during a third-quarter analysts call that the company would be in a better position to explain the losses and "the steps [the company] has taken in regard to circulation generation and focus in regard to quality circulation" when the official report hits.

McClatchy also pointed to other-paid circulation to make a distinction between legacy McClatchy papers and the newly acquired ones previously owned by Knight Ridder: The former KR papers have a higher percentage of other-paid circ, particularly in third-party programs. "We are working with the publishers to sort of bring that down in a planned fashion so that we are delivering higher value to our advertisers," said Frank Whittaker, vice president of operations at McClatchy, during a 3Q conference call.

Also expect publishers to push the notion of total readership, like Belo did when it announced its numbers in mid-October. That said, ABC has delayed its reader profile FAS-FAX report again, which was originally slated for a March 2006 release. Sources say the organization is working on a more comprehensive future report.