Forecast: Print advertising decline slows — but the floor is lower than expected

This week, Borrell Associates will release its latest local advertising forecasts, and while there’s some modest stability on the horizon, it comes with a hard truth for newspaper publishers: print advertising revenue is dipping deeper than anticipated.

“Sorry for the bad news for the newspaper sector, but that’s what the data says right now,” Borrell Associates CEO Gordon Borrell wrote in a note to E&P, adding that the new figures draw from a fresh survey of 1,400 businesses and detailed analysis of post-pandemic trends. Corey Elliott, executive vice president of local market intelligence at Borrell, is slated to share more insights when the full forecast drops Tuesday.

(Register to attend the Borell Associates’ webinar on Tuesday, July 22, at 11 a.m. ET)

According to the preview data, print has officially “bottomed out” — but at a smaller and less profitable level than some in the industry had hoped. The good news? The steepest part of the long decline may be over. The bad? Core revenue from print now clings to a narrow segment of essential advertisers and older demographics, offering a predictable but low-growth future.

“Most remaining ad dollars come from sectors and communities less penetrated by digital, such as local services and legal/public notices,” the Borrell team notes.

Same-size markets, wildly different outcomes

The new report takes a closer look at three comparably sized markets — Albany, New York; Fresno, California; and Tulsa, Oklahoma — and their diverging print advertising futures:

• Tulsa: Projected to lose 17% of local print ad spend by 2029
• Fresno: Forecast to decline by 22% — a full five points worse than Tulsa
• Albany: More resilient, with only a 7% drop expected over five years

Each outcome reflects a unique blend of factors, from the strength of local news outlets and advertiser loyalty to population age and overall economic health.

But there’s one common thread across all markets: national advertisers are pulling back from print — fast. Across these three CBSAs, national print ad spend is expected to drop roughly 40% by 2029. That steep contraction is amplifying the pressure on local publishers to shore up sustainable revenue streams elsewhere.

Recalibrating for reality

The Borrell data suggests that while local newspaper businesses have largely adjusted their operations to fit this new reality — cutting costs, right-sizing staff and raising cover prices — the days of print ad recovery are behind us.

“It’s not all doom,” one slide says, “but let’s be honest, a negative number is never exactly cause for celebration.”

With these forecasts framed more as a “Ghost of Christmas Future” than a fixed fate, the report emphasizes that local economic conditions, political landscapes and reader habits could still shift trajectories. But in the meantime, publishers are being urged to think hard about where their growth is really going to come from — and fast.