Goldman Sachs: Advertising Trends Are 'Sloppy'

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By: Jennifer Saba Most of the July numbers are in and the big picture isn't pretty as ad revenues continue on a downward trend. A report issued by Goldman Sachs estimates that newspaper ad revenues for the month grew about 5% (June was up 5.4% and May was up 5.8%).

The investment firm scolded the industry since July's bar is so low -- July 2003 newspaper ad revenues were up a scant 1.4%.

Numbers varied across the industry with the larger newspaper companies -- Knight Ridder, The New York Times Co., and Tribune Co. -- suffering more this month than their smaller counterparts. The inconsistency "serves to reinforce the notion that the ad recovery is spotty and lacking momentum," the report said.

Nor is Goldman Sachs particularly bullish on future numbers: "In light of the mixed macroeconomic data we are currently seeing, we do not see a catalyst for a near-term reacceleration in newspaper ad revenue growth.?

None of this helps newspaper stocks. ?Sloppy? ad trends, high earnings estimates and ?unappealing? valuations (year to date, large-cap newspaper stocks are down 7%, well beneath the S&P 500's dip of 1.5%) caused the firm to take a ?cautious sector view.?

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