By: Jennifer Saba Miles Groves, a media economist with MG Strategic Research, thinks 2004 will be a better year for newspaper publishers. "I think it's going to be strong," he said. Still Groves cautions that the most recent numbers show consumer confidence slipping due perhaps, in part, to Democrats questioning the strength of the economy. This could impact future growth, Groves said.
Groves predicts that readership will improve this year, single copy sales will grow, and that major dailies will gain more and more political ad revenue.
The Morton-Grove newsletter released today also recaps 2003. Fourth quarter earnings for newspaper companies grew due to strong holiday advertising, according to the report. Classified advertising growth, though, limped along.
The increases ranged from 1.6% at Gannett Co. Inc. to 26.5% at Dow Jones & Co. (though it's noted that Dow Jones had depressed earnings a year ago). Belo Corp., was down more than 10% due to a drop off in political advertising within the TV group, but its earnings before interest, taxes and amortization (EBITA) for fourth quarter growth for Belo's newspaper group was up 7.1%.
As for the full year of 2003, Morton-Groves reported that only Belo and the New York Times Co. were down, each at 1%. The Washington Post Co. showed a gain of 0.3% and Dow Jones was up 29.7%.
Taken as a whole, newspapers revenues for reporting companies rose 4.6% in the fourth quarter and 3.1% for the year.
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