Handicapping the Pulitzers: Experts Pick Front-Runners

By: Joe Strupp As the Pulitzer Prize jurors meet next week to pick finalists for the coveted annual awards, industry observers can't help but begin handicapping the competition. Like Oscar speculators who argue "Brokeback Mountain" vs. "Crash," newspaper insiders are already talking "Katrina," "secret wiretapping," and "Abramoff."

OK, so Times-Picayune Editor Jim Amoss is no George Clooney. But then, Clooney never had to relocate an entire newsroom in the middle of a devastating flood.

In this attempt to offer some informed speculation on the Pulitzer pool we sought insight from some of the nation's top editors, many of whom have served on Pulitzer juries; scanned the winners and finalists in numerous journalism competitions already announced; and, finally, flipped a few coins.

Bear in mind that the finalists have not even been chosen and that the almighty Pulitzer Board, which will choose winners in April, can move entries around and even declare no winner in some categories.

One more confounding twist: Newspapers can now include material published online as part of their entries. The Public Service category, considered the most prestigious, has since 1999 allowed an online presentation to be part of entries. But the 13 other journalism categories will allow online content for the first time.

Having said all that, pass the popcorn and roll the projector ... er ... scroll key.

THE KATRINA FACTOR

All of those who spoke with E&P cited Hurricane Katrina coverage as a must for at least one prize. The Times-Picayune of New Orleans is, of course, the favorite, not only because of the stellar work it did in reporting the natural disaster, but because of the physical limitations under which staffers were forced to work.

"I think there is going to be a huge interest in how the Gulf Coast newspapers fared in the hurricane aftermath," said Robert Rivard, editor of the San Antonio Express-News and a two-time Pulitzer juror.

Peter Bhatia, executive editor of The Oregonian in Portland and another former juror, agreed. "This is the year of Katrina," said Bhatia. "That will weigh into it."

Don't be surprised if the Times-Picayune takes the Public Service Award, and possibly Breaking News, Breaking News photography, and/or Editorial Writing. However, the New Orleans daily does not stand alone in its Katrina response. Other local papers, such as The Sun-Herald of Biloxi, Miss. and numerous neighboring dailies, such as The Dallas Morning News, offered their own monumental coverage of the disaster.

Not to mention The New York Times, Los Angeles Times, and the Associated Press, among others, going all-out in the post-Katrina story pursuit.

Such a massive media response to the decade's biggest disaster might spark some shared prizes, with the board giving each of those major outlets a Katrina-related nod. Look for AP to possibly get the photography prize as the Times-Picayune gets public service, at least. If it does, it will be partly for its Web work -- a nice modern twist.

The New Orleans paper has already won accolades with a George Polk Award for its Katrina coverage, while sharing a special citation with several other nearby newspapers from the National Press Foundation.

INVESTIGATIVE

Two top investigative entries are generating the most buzz.

The first is the "Coingate" coverage in The Blade of Toledo, Ohio, which broke the story of a rare coin investment scandal that has already brought indictments on fundraiser Tom Noe and sparked a shake-up in Ohio's Republican Party. It is a finalist in the Shorenstein Center's annual Goldsmith Prize for Investigative Reporting and has earned Blade Editor Ron Royhab an editor of the year award from the National Press Foundation.

"Everybody is talking about 'Coingate,'" said one editor who has served on two previous juries and will serve again this year, but requested anonymity. "People who are hooked in to IRE (Investigative Reporters and Editors) think it was extremely well done and not predictable."

But Coingate does not stand alone. There's also The Washington Post's revelations about lobbyist Jack Abramoff, which led to his eventual "guilty" plea on corruption charges and a nationwide push for lobbying reform in Congress.

"That is the big story," said one editor who is an IRE member and past juror. "'Coingate' had profound results, but most of the major findings were made by state investigators."

The Post's Abramoff coverage has already won the Selden Ring for Investigative Reporting, along with a finalist pick from the Shorenstein Center's Goldsmith judges.

INTERNATIONAL

For International Reporting, several candidates keep popping up in talks with insiders, as well as in award competitions.

The Post's Dana Priest, who uncovered the CIA's secret battle against terrorism, including a hidden prison network the agency operated outside the U.S., is already a Goldsmith finalist and Polk award winner.

Also winning in the Polk competition were Priest's Post colleagues, David B. Ottaway and Joe Stephens, who garnered notice with his reporting on sham reconstruction plans in Afghanistan.

Then there's the Chicago Tribune series, "Pipeline to Peril," which revealed a human trafficking business linked to the massacre of 12 Nepalese men in Iraq and won a Polk international reporting prize.

The New York Times' domestic-spying coverage by James Risen and Eric Lichtblau, which disclosed a secret wiretapping program and sparked controversy when it was revealed the paper waited a year at the government's request to run the story, could take any one of several categories, from national reporting to investigative. The stories have already gotten a Goldsmith finalist nod.

"You have to look at how The New York Times handled the whole national security story," says John Temple, editor and publisher of The Rocky Mountain News in Denver.

Rex Smith, editor of the Albany (N.Y.) Times-Union and a two-time juror, cited both the Times' stories and Priest's coverage as examples of award-caliber reporting based, in part, on confidential sourcing that the board may want to commend: "I think it is likely and appropriate for the jurors and the board to reward work that made use of confidential sources because that is so much under fire. The board could make an important statement by affirming the right of journalists to make appropriate use of anonymous sources."

NATIONAL

On National Reporting, look for Copley News Service/San Diego Union-Tribune's reporting on former congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham, which uncovered his $2.4 million in bribes from defense contractors and led to his resignation, to be a contender. Marcus Stern and Jerry Kammer have already gotten a Polk Award and Selden Ring finalist notice.

Another Selden Ring finalist, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel of Fort Lauderdale and its expose' of FEMA, dubbed "A Legacy of Waste," is sure to contend, editors say.

Then there's Jerry Mitchell of The Clarion-Ledger in Jackson, Miss., who revealed information about the 1964 murders of three civil rights activists that led to the conviction of the leader of the plot -- and a Polk Award. "If I was a judge, I would really look at Mitchell," said Paul Anger, editor of the Detroit Free Press and a former Des Moines Register editor. "We are in this business to right wrongs."

FEATURE

In Feature Reporting, The Rocky Mountain News' "Final Salute," which reported on a year in the life of a Marine major who informs families in person when a loved one dies in military service, has gotten serious notice, including two awards from the American Society of Newspaper Editors (ASNE).

"That generated as much buzz at the ASNE judging as anything," said Bhatia of the Oregonian. "You'd have to think it is a contender."

Another ASNE favorite among the feature players is Lane De Gregory of the St. Petersburg (Fla.) Times for a series of stories about a local teen who went from her high school graduation to a part on Broadway. The six-month reporting job chronicled her relationship with her mother and how the two coped during her first time living away from home.

EXPLANATORY

It's a category that's hard to nail down, because it often includes entries that could find a home in several categories. But early reviews in other competitions show support for two possibilities from the New York Times and The Plain Dealer of Cleveland.

The Times' Barry Meier, who already won a Polk Award, may see success for his coverage of a defective heart implant that sparked major changes.

In Cleveland, a six-month look at the energy crisis called "Crude Awakening" included 13 reporters and various editors and photographers. The series already earned a National Press Foundation prize.

COMMENTARY

In the Commentary category, Nicholas Kristof of The New York Times seems a front-runner, already earning an ASNE prize and a special citation from the Goldsmith Awards. Both noted his hard-hitting columns about the genocide in Darfur. He has also been a Pulitzer finalist the past two years.

Other columnists raising interest would likely include Cynthia Tucker of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, a 2004 finalist; Kathleen Parker of the Orlando Sentinel, who has never been a finalist or winner, but whose impact is rising; and Bob Herbert of The New York Times, a longtime voice who peppers his anti-war writing with real reporting.

Then there's Chris Rose of The Times-Picayune, a finalized for an ASNE award and a celebrated chronicler of the post-Katrina landscape.

Or: Perhaps an online-only columnist?

On the outside chance that the board wants to honor a sports columnist, something they've done only three times since the award began in 1970, Tony Kornheiser of The Washington Post may be in the running. A finalist in 1997, Kornheiser may not get another chance as he plans to move to Monday Night Football telecasts and likely cut down his column-writing duties.

CARTOONISTS

As for Editorial Cartoonists, those having especially good years in 2005 included Nick Anderson of The Courier-Journal in Louisville, Ky.; Jeff Danziger of the New York Times Syndicate; Mike Luckovich of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution; Jeff Parker of Florida Today in Melbourne; Rob Rogers of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette; and, Doonesbury's Garry Trudeau.

Anderson had an excellent year, but since he won in 2005, he will almost surely not repeat. Danziger, a Vietnam veteran, created insightful anti-Iraq War commentary and just won the Herblock Prize -- which Matt Davies of the Journal News in White Plains, N.Y., won in 2004 before taking the Pulitzer soon after.

Luckovich won in 1995, but created a real buzz in 2005 with his anti-war "WHY" cartoon, which may be the most powerful cartoon of the year. Then there is Trudeau, who has not won since 1975 but has been a finalist several times since, most recently in the past two years.

But, of course, these are merely speculative ideas. Like the Oscars, the Pulitzers depend on the choices of a specific, small group. Unlike the Oscars, there is no pre-awards red carpet show, post-awards fashion critique, or Jon Stewart monologue.

"The awards are a competition among the individual entries and the individual reporting or commentating is what wins the Pulitzer," ex-columnist William Safire, a former nine-year board member and past winner, told E&P this week. "Each competitor stands by itself."