By: Jennifer Saba Help wanted advertising revenues for online and print are expected to bounce back in 2004 after three straight years of declining numbers, according to a report released today by Goldman Sachs. The investment firm predicts a bright year ahead due to the improving employment market coupled with positive monthly ad revenues reported for the first quarter of 2004.
CareerBuilder.com, the online site owned by Gannett, Tribune and Knight Ridder, has bucked the slow growth trend over the past couple of years. Online only recruitment sites -- excluding CareerBuilder -- have experienced flat growth since the third quarter of 2001. Only Careerbuilder has gained revenue over the same time period. "We estimate that over 100% of the growth in the online recruitment ad market over the past two years has been generated by CareerBuilder. After several years of ignoring the issue of online competition, the publishers have turned the tide in the battle for help wanted dominance," the report said.
Despite that coup, the investment firm warns that online recruitment sites still remain a threat but "the recent data suggests that publishers are doing a much better job of responding to this challenge, thereby muting the competitive impact of the online-only companies."
Goldman Sachs is still playing it conservative with its estimates and expects to see a roughly 10% full-year gain in help wanted ad revenues in 2004, well below the 20% growth usually experienced in the first year of a help wanted recovery. This is due to lingering concerns about the strength of the employment market.
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