Many Editors in Ohio, Key Swing State, Predict Bush Victory

By: Charles Geraci An informal E&P survey of Ohio newspaper editors and publishers shows that most believe that if the election were held today, President Bush would carry this key battleground state.

Of the state's 84 daily newspapers, E&P surveyed 21, exactly one-quarter. Executives at 12 think Bush would win, compared to six forecasting a Kerry victory. The remaining three were hesitant to speculate. Most pundits have called the race a toss-up.

Included in the survey were small papers as well as those in Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, and Toledo.

Another finding: eight to 10 of the 21 papers will not endorse either candidate, mainly reflecting their policy against endorsements.

Most editors like all the attention Ohio is getting. But Ted Daniels, editor and general manager of the Ashland Times-Gazette (Click for QuikCap), commented: "I'm tired of the constant barrage of TV commercials, like a lot of people around here. They are becoming numb to the advertising." Another editor complained of "parachute journalism" by the national media.

Predictions of a Bush victory came from many smaller towns as well as from Cleveland. In solidly Democratic Ashtabula, Editor Neil Freider of the Star Beacon said, "I don't think Kerry has made a strong case in this state, which is Republican-leaning."

Ross Gallabrese, managing editor at the Herald-Star in Steubenville, added, "I just don't think Kerry has done a good job selling his ideas to the state." Though Kerry has been to Ohio numerous times, Tom Brennan, editor and publisher of the News Journal in Mansfield, believes that "Kerry is still a bit of an unknown in Ohio."

Other editors contend Bush will win for other reasons. Amy Adams, managing editor at The Morning Journal in Lorain, said, "With world events the way they are, a lot of people will go with the status quo."

Others see it differently. Jeff Bruce, the Dayton Daily News editor, believes the election is extremely close, but guesses Kerry has a leg up. "If you put a gun to my head, I'd pick Kerry given the economic circumstances," he explained. "The issue of outsourcing is getting traction for Kerry here."

John Block, publisher of The Blade in Toledo, believes Kerry has the best shot to win, adding that his paper has often been critical of Bush's policies. But that does not mean the paper will automatically endorse the senator from Massachusetts. "We take [our endorsement] seriously," Block said. "I would encourage every newspaper to take the decision seriously, as if it determines the election."

He noted that some political operatives are saying that the Toledo vote might prove decisive, and he thinks the Blade's endorsement "could affect the outcome of Ohio as well as the election."

Most editors seemed to agree on one thing: winning Ohio is crucial, especially for President Bush, as no Republican has ever won the White House without carrying the state. "Ohio is a very important state," said Lisa Warren, editor of The Journal-News in Hamilton. "Ohio is a microcosm of the country for economic, military, and health care issues."

Of the papers surveyed, at least eight have no plans to officially endorse either candidate, the majority because it is their policy. Two are not sure if they will endorse. And at least two, The Sidney Daily News and the Piqua Daily Call, acknowledge they will probably go for Bush.

The Plain Dealer of Cleveland has invited both candidates to meet with the paper's editorial board but hasn't heard back from either one, according to Editor Doug Clifton.

John Kerry has already met with the editorial board of the Dayton Daily News. Editor Bruce recalled, "Kerry surprised me. My impression of him [from television] was that he was aloof. But he came across as very approachable."

Bruce said that while Kerry was meeting with the editorial board, he looked down beneath Bruce's chair and exclaimed, "Oh look, a lucky Ohio penny!" Kerry ended up keeping the penny, though he did offer it to Bruce. "This is not a guy who's stiff," said Bruce.

With the citizens of Ohio as divided as ever, the candidates are appearing in the state frequently. By the end of next week, Bush will have made eight campaign stops in Ohio, compared with 13 for Kerry. Both Bush and Kerry will address the Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW) convention next week in Cincinnati.

Kerry has vowed he will not pull out of Ohio prematurely, as Al Gore did in 2000, effectively writing off the state 10 days before the election.

Block noted that Bush's campaigning in Democratic strongholds north of the Ohio Turnpike demonstrates he is not confident of winning the state. "We are seeing each side going into the other's territory," he said.

Bruce, editor of the Dayton paper, quipped, "The joke around here is if [the candidates] show up any more, they're going to have to start paying taxes."

"There's a lot of focus on the state and its problems," said Freider. "It gives me fodder for writing editorials."

Ben Marrison, editor of The Columbus Dispatch, noted that candidates usually make Page One of the paper the day after appearing in a state. But this year, things are different in Ohio. "The candidates really have to say something to make the front page," he said.

Some editors are not so thrilled with all the attention. David Miller, editor of The Sentinel-Tribune in Bowling Green, observed: "They both started the commercials way too early, and right now, are just spending."

While M.L. Schultze, managing editor of The Repository in Canton, said the national attention is flattering, at the same time, she complained about reading "numerous descriptions of our community [in the national media] that seem somewhat facile. We've become a mecca for parachute journalism."

But Brenda Burns, managing editor of the Urbana Daily Citizen concluded, "It's better to have the attention. The problems and challenges in our state will be looked at more closely on the national level."

The papers surveyed were: The Review of Alliance, the Ashland Times-Gazette, the Star Beacon of Ashtabula, The Sentinel-Tribune of Bowling Green, The Repository of Canton, The Plain Dealer of Cleveland, The Columbus Dispatch, the Dayton Daily News, the Daily Advocate of Greenville, The Journal News of Hamilton, The Morning Journal of Lorain, the News Journal of Mansfield, the Piqua Daily Call, The Salem News, the Sandusky Register, the Daily Globe of Shelby, The Sidney Daily News, the Herald-Star of Steubenville (also serving Weirton, W.Va.), The Blade of Toledo, the Urbana Daily Citizen, and The Daily Record of Wooster.