Mediabistro Asks Media Watchers for 2006 Predictions

By: E&P Staff In his latest column, E&P's Joe Strupp picks the ten most important newspaper industry stories of 2005. But that was then, this is now. What's coming in 2006? David S. Hirschman at mediabistro.com asked an assortment of media watchers to go out on a limb.

Here are a few educated or wild guesses pertaining to the newspaper biz.

JON FRIEDMAN, MARKETWATCH.COM

* Mitch Albom won't write his Final Four column this time until AFTER the end of the tournament.


BILL POWERS, NATIONAL JOURNAL

* In 2006, newspapers will finally get their act together and become exciting, modern, user-friendly tools for life. A newspaper rolled up under the arm will be more hip and fashionable than dangling white earbuds. In an unrelated development, scientists will announce the birth of a pig with tiny, fully functional wings.


MARK JURKOWITZ, BOSTON PHOENIX

* At a Wall Street media conference, five major newspaper companies announce they will lay off 1000 more employees in an attempt to bolster their stock price. Bearish investors respond that "the street" won't be able to view the newspaper business as a promising "buy" until all the windows are boarded up and cobwebs cover the printing presses.

* In a stunning Vanity Fair article, "Deep Throat" -- a.k.a. W. Mark Felt -- reveals that he was the Bush administration source who discussed Valerie Plame with The Washington Post's Bob Woodward.


ADAM PENENBERG, SLATE.COM/NEW YORK UNIVERSITY

* Columnists will continue to predict the death of newspapers while they collect paychecks from online versions of newspapers.

* Maureen Dowd, Nick Kristof, and the other New York Times Select columnists will go on strike when they learn that no one has been reading them since the Times started charging for online access. Maureen Dowd says, "Never ask a publisher who's in a bubble if he's in a bubble. I'd write a column about Pinch the son and Punch the elder, but I used up all my good material on evil Dubya and his prose-mangling father, George senior."

* The "blogosphere" will self-combust when researchers from Stanford University learn how to turn digital hot air into the real thing, momentarily solving our nation's energy needs but giving workers nowhere to go when they are at the office surfing the Internet on a high-speed connection.


JAY ROSEN, PRESS THINK/NEW YORK UNIVERISTY

* The paths of The New York Times and The Washington Post will continue to diverge. (65% probability)

* The prestige and defensibility of "he said, she said" journalism will continue to plummet while the incidence of it will remain about the same. (80%)

* The brilliant strategy of trying to beat the competition by cutting quality will remain in place in the newspaper biz, and so more newspapers will tip from black to red ink. (85%)

* More "traditional" journalists will catch the bug and emerge as blogging stars. (60%)

* More innovation will come to the news industry from players outside that industry, including Yahoo, Google, bloggers, amateurs, geeks and non-profits. (75%)


ERIC ALTERMAN, THE NATION

* President Bush will make statements that are demonstrably false. Most, if not all of the mainstream media will print these statements without pointing this out. Bloggers will complain. Mainstream reporters and editors will respond that "since we are being attacked by both sides, we must be doing something right," and attack Democrats for their "fecklessness" in failing to offer up an alternative plan to Bush's fictional statements. Bloggers will complain more. Reporters and editors will respond ... (see above).

If you have newspaper industry predictions of your own, send them to us at letters@editorandpublisher.com.