Navigating the thin ice of uncertainty: Strategies for leaders in chaotic times

I can’t offer any certainty in a world that is so profoundly uncertain right now. But I can tell you some smart steps to take.”

Doug Phares, managing director, Silverwind Enterprises

Right now, do you pivot or stay the course? Hunker down or rise up? The landscape seems to change not by the hour but by the minute. As the current presidential administration continues to sow chaos throughout the global economy, it’s nearly impossible for business leaders to stabilize their footing long enough to make a plan.

The best way I can conceptualize the situation is to compare it to an ice floe. The temperature is just about freezing, but the ice is thin. You may be fine if you stay where you are, but the ice feels shaky and unsteady beneath your feet. In the distance, you can see pieces breaking off and floating away. Do you wait for cracks to start appearing under you, or do you make a break for it?

At this moment in time, there is no good path forward. Everywhere you look, penguins are jumping into the water because something bad is coming.

I can’t offer any certainty in a world that is so profoundly uncertain right now. But I can tell you some smart steps to take. My first observation is that the market hates uncertainty. Whether you’re receiving products from China and are directly impacted, or you paint houses for a living and the impact is indirect, the market uncertainty will affect you.

When talking to non-essential retailers, almost everybody reports that their stores have become ghost towns. A big driver in this change is people deciding to make major purchases to lock in prices before the tariffs affect supply lines — cars, dishwashers, etc. Consumers might not need these big purchases right now, but they're taking money they would otherwise spend on non-essentials in a typical environment.

Adding to this uncertainty is that swaths of the U.S. economy are laying people off to cut costs in an unpredictable time. This leaves people unsure if they’ll have a job in a month, particularly in the public sector, where entire departments can be eliminated seemingly at random. All of this serves to create those cracks in the ice.

First and foremost, I advise getting your cost structure as low as possible. I realize I’m talking from both sides of my mouth: layoffs may cause further ripples, but unless you’re cash-rich and ready to weather the storm, get your costs in line. Jettison anything you’re questioning and be as tight as possible because now is not the time to find yourself without a cash cushion.

At the same time, you have a responsibility to shepherd the emotional health of your team. Your team is just as unsettled as you are. Arguably, even more so, if the team members don’t have decision-making abilities and can only worry about the future of their careers.

If your team has concerns about business going away, cuts, tightening up or factory floors not running, you need to be up-front with your staff. Tell them what you’re thinking and seeing and give them whatever assurance you can. And if you can’t give them assurances, tell them the truth. An uncomfortable truth will do a lot more to create stability and understanding than a comforting lie.

Nobody wants to tell someone that they could be laid off. But when you deliver that information, tell them what that looks like. In what situation would you need to reduce your workforce? How will you know when you're at that point? Not only does this give your team some semblance of certainty, but it also creates an environment where your team knows what a bad situation for them looks like and can at least try to prevent that from happening.

My final observation is that, while uncertainty incentivizes hunkering down and cutting costs, it also creates opportunity. Sam Walton always says that a recession is a great time to double down on market share. So, if you’ve been looking at a new market, new customers or new areas, now is a good time to reach out. Potential customers might be more open to receiving a message about lowering costs or delivering products faster, especially if your service team is based in the U.S.

Whatever your value equation, look at how you can pitch in a chaotic environment to gain market share. For better or worse, opportunities like this don’t always come around.

Above all else, do your best to stay in a good spot. That might be hiking, yoga or just about anything else, but give yourself time to stay balanced and centered. Nobody else will get you off the ice floe, and you have the best odds of success if you’re taking care of yourself.

I don’t see anything that will keep the ice from cracking. It’s just a matter of where, when and how nimble you are at jumping away from the polar bears.

Doug Phares is the former CEO of the Sandusky News Group. He currently serves as managing director of Silverwind Enterprises, which owns and provides management services to small businesses. He can be reached at doug@silverwind.biz.