A new white paper released by Make It Free challenges digital publishers to confront a persistent blind spot: most of their audience will never subscribe or register.
Titled “Seeing the Data Forest Through the Digital Trees,” the report draws on behavioral data across the publishing industry and argues that the current paywall model leaves substantial revenue and engagement on the table.
The research finds that over 90% of digital visitors leave a site when they encounter a paywall, a figure that has remained largely unchanged despite more sophisticated dynamic paywall systems. These so-called “No-Intention” readers — consumers with no plans to pay or share personal data — represent a silent majority that traditional subscription strategies cannot reach.
“Publishers have come to accept that 90% of their audience will always be lost revenue,” said Wade Bradley, CEO and co-founder of Make It Free. “This research shows that assumption is incorrect.”
Historic patterns and digital parallels
The paper highlights striking similarities between modern digital audiences and the crowds who passed by newsstands decades ago. In the past, only a small portion of passersby would stop to buy a paper. Today’s online consumers display the same behavior, browsing headlines and sampling content without ever committing financially.
According to the report, the introduction of smart paywalls — algorithms that gauge user intent and personalize offers — has improved conversion rates among high-intent users. Industry averages now show that about 7% of readers register for free accounts and roughly 3% purchase subscriptions when prompted. Yet the remaining 90% continue to exit almost immediately.
The study cautions that no amount of refinement in back-end paywalls is likely to change this entrenched behavior.
The digital traffic paradox
While many publishers focus heavily on expanding subscription counts, the report argues that success will increasingly depend on acknowledging the distinct segments within their audiences.
In particular, the research identifies a critical distinction between:
The paper’s authors suggest that publishers could improve both revenue and reader goodwill by offering more flexible pathways for casual users. One of the findings underscores the importance of reducing negative experiences that drive consumers away entirely.
Data as the next competitive advantage
Beyond monetization, the report warns that publishers’ reliance on external platforms — such as Apple, YouTube and Amazon — has created additional risks. While those platforms gather deep individual-level data, many media organizations still rely on broad, impersonal audience metrics like DMA shares and age brackets.
This data gap has consequences for sustainability. The study notes that platforms are not incentivized to share granular insights, which means publishers lose opportunities to understand their audiences’ interests and behaviors in ways that can support advertising, product development and fundraising.
“When you don’t enable wide-open engagement, you don’t control the relationship with the masses,” Bradley said. “That’s the lesson from every garden-walled system whether it be websites, music books and magazines over the last two decades.”
Building direct relationships
The report emphasizes that building direct connections doesn’t have to depend solely on paid subscriptions. It recommends incremental approaches to gathering user information in exchange for value — whether through newsletters, limited free access or other forms of engagement.
Among the report’s notable findings:
Urgency to adapt
While the paper acknowledges that subscription revenue remains a cornerstone for many publishers, it argues that relying exclusively on it is no longer sufficient. With on-air audiences aging and overall loyalty declining, the industry faces an inflection point.
The authors conclude with a clear recommendation: publishers should embrace a two-pronged approach — continuing to refine subscription strategies for high-intent audiences while also creating newfront-end paywall solutions as low-friction ways to engage and profit from everyone else.
“The best time to start building these relationships was years ago,” Bradley said. “The second-best time is today.”
Download the white paper
The complete report, “Seeing the Data Forest Through the Digital Trees,” is available free of charge and includes detailed charts, case study projections and practical recommendations.
Download the white paper
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