NEWSPAPER AD EXECS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT HOLIDAYS

By: Joe Nicholson Even Sluggish Retail Sales Could Benefit Papers





You can't sell if you're not an optimist, it has long been said, and most newspaper ad executives now seem enthusiastic about holiday ad sales.



"What we feel is that the Christmas season could be a very strong one," says Dennis J. Grant, vice president of advertiser marketing at the Chicago Tribune. "The economics in the Midwest are very strong. Unemployment is way low. The economic reports are good. So we don't have the same pessimism that I have been reading about in the papers."



Overall retail sales seem poised to bounce back from weak performances in recent months, several newspaper ad executives say, citing the optimism of their customers. Even if holiday retail sales prove unexpectedly sluggish, newspapers may benefit because retailers often react to a shortfall by taking out additional, last-minute ROP ads.



The optimism of the newspaper ad executives is tempered by the realization that some mainstay advertisers are already taking out as much advertising as makes good economic sense. It can be very difficult to persuade a local department store to spend more if it is already paying for saturation advertising. "Certainly, when we are running seven or eight pages a day, you can question whether a ninth page would be of any value - of sufficient value - to warrant the cost," concedes one newspaper ad executive, who did not want to be identified.



Ron Davidson, vice president for advertising at The Wichita (Kan.) Eagle, acknowledges there are challenges. "It's been a fairly difficult retail environment through the summer and into the fall," says Davidson. "We're definitely hopeful [holiday ad sales] will be better than last year, but it's a flip of the coin at this point. On the local front, our holiday-section sales efforts are considerably ahead of this time period last year."



Davidson says he is uncertain that he will see improvements in ad spending by national chains. Fortunately, Davidson has been able to compensate for some revenue dips among pre-print advertisers, who have trimmed page counts or restricted geographic distribution, by landing contracts to do the printing of more inserts, including both those his paper distributes and those advertisers use for direct-mail campaigns.



Another ad executive, who asked not to be named, says it's true that somewhat depressed retail sales were likely to prompt stepped-up newspaper advertising - but he warns that a profoundly slow season could lead retailers to cut their losses by reducing ad spending.



In Southern California, Scott T. Whitley, advertising director at The San Diego Union-Tribune, says "my confidence level is very high" that a bubbling local economy will help him tally up record ad sales. "The feedback we're getting from our retailers is that they are looking for a good holiday season," says Whitley.



His optimism has not even been dampened by the loss of more than a dozen small advertisers in the wake of state energy deregulation, which has led to skyrocketing electric bills and bankruptcies among some small businesses. Says Whitley, "We are expecting increases from our major department stores."







Joe Nicholson (jnicholson@editorandpublisher.com) is an associate editor for E&P.







Copyright 2000, Editor & Publisher.