By: E&P Staff The American newspaper industry will see modest growth during the next five years, according to a forecast released today by PricewaterhouseCoopers. The largest advances are expected in national advertising.
The "Global Entertainment and Media Outlook: 2004-2008" predicts that national ads, aided by "cutbacks in telemarketing," will increase at a 7.7% average annual rate, growing from $7.8 billion in 2003 to $11.3 billion in 2008.
At the same time, retail (local) advertising will climb at just 3% annually, and classified will remain "sluggish."
Circulation revenue will grow little. The report predicts that "efforts to attract young readers will buttress weekday circulation, but Sunday editions will falter." The overall circ outlook is for "stabilization," which in itself is "an improvement compared with recent years."
In classified, recruitment advertising will fall 7% in 2004, then rebound and climb 2.7% in 2005, 5.3% in 2006 and 7.5% in 2007, according to the forecast. Real estate will remain strong this year, then fall as interest rates rise, the report predicts. Meanwhile, automobile ads will merely tootle along.
The favorable climate for national advertising includes movie companies increasingly favoring newspapers (both for theatrical and DVD releases), with wireless offers also abounding. Newspapers are successfully deploying special supplements and conducting market research to aid national grabs, the report noted.
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