Newspapers Will Lose More Global Ad Share In Next 2 Years, Study Predicts

By: E&P Staff Even as the Olympics pushes ad spending worldwide next year, newspapers' share of the global advertising market by 2009 will decline to 26.2% from 29.0% in 2006, according to a study released Thursday by the international ad agency ZenithOptimedia.

"Newspapers are suffering the most from the depredations of the internet, which is better at delivering timely news and is an efficient substitute for newspaper classifieds," the study concluded.

The study has more bad news for U.S. newspapers, predicting the nation's total spend on advertising will grow just 2.5% -- down from the modest 3.3% growth ZenithOptimedia forecast earlier this year. "The continued slump in the US housing market has led to a sharp drop in property and construction advertising, particularly property classifieds in newspapers," the study said.

Internet advertising will grow a stunning 85% in the next two years, ZenithOptimedia predicts, but it will still account for less than 10% of global ad share by 2009. The agency expects Internet advertising to account for 9.5% of all expenditure in 2009, up from 6.1% in 2006.

An Old Media, TV, will be one of the big ad gainers over the next couple of years, ZenithOptimedia says.

"Television faces many challenges -- the spread of PVRs (personal video recorders); migration of viewers from premium mass-audience channels to cheaper specialist channels; and competition from the internet, to name three of the biggest," the agency notes. "Despite all these, television will increase its share of global ad expenditure from 37.9% in 2007 to 38.2% in 2008, an all-time record."

ZenithOptimedia predicts television will actually lose market share in older markets, especially in North America -- where it is expected to fall 0.3% to 32.4% of ad share -- and Western Europe, where TV will drop 0.5% in share to 30. 4%. Those drops, though, will be more than made up by increases in Asia, especially as a result of the Summer Olympics in Beijing.

Helped by digital technology, outdoor will increase its market share worldwide to 5.6% from 5.9%, ZenithOptimedia predicts. "New digital displays make it easy for advertisers to book and distribute eye-catching ads at short notice," the agency said.