Predicting a President: The Latest Electoral College Shakeup Brings Some Good News for Bush

By: Erin Olson After a brief respite yesterday, three Web sites today decided to shake things up in E&P's exclusive tracking of seven major newspaper Web sites' electoral maps. President Bush fared a little better than Sen. John Kerry after today's changes, gaining at the Los Angeles Times and holding steady at the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. Both candidates lost ground at USA Today. And four sites did not change.

With an average of 199.6 electoral votes across the seven sites, Bush has maintained his lead over Kerry, whose vote count dropped to an average of 184.4. Both still fall far short of the 270 needed to win the election.

The most drastic changes occurred at the Los Angeles Times, where Bush took North Carolina and Colorado, for a total of 24 votes. He lost Nevada, however, as it was put back in the undecided category, leaving him with a net gain of 19 electoral votes. Kerry, meanwhile, took Maine and lost Hawaii to the contested category, for a net gain of zero. After all the shifting, Bush's lead increased to 177-153 at the paper.

Surprisingly, USA Today put both New Jersey and Missouri back in play, dropping New Jersey from Kerry's column and Missouri from Bush's and labeling them "closely contested." This may be news to the candidates. The reasoning behind the decisions: USA Today's polls show the candidates in a tight race in both states, with Bush and Kerry each at 46% in New Jersey. Bushs holds on to a 205-171 lead over Kerry at the site.

For its part, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel shifted Minnesota's 10 electoral votes from "leaning Kerry" to "toss up," putting it in line with all the other sites except The New York Times' (where it leans to the Democrat). The president leads 222-207 at the Sun-Sentinel.

The remaining four Web sites stand with the following vote counts: 227-225 for Bush at The New York Times, 168-166 for Kerry at The Philadelphia Inquirer, 208-179 for Bush at The Washington Post, and 192-188 for Bush at The Boston Globe.