Predicting a President: Where the Papers' Online Electoral Maps Agree and Disagree

By: Erin Olson In a new twist on E&P's exclusive tracking of major newspaper Web sites' electoral-college maps, today's article will chart how they differ or agree on which states are still tossups and which lean toward one candidate or the other.

In the all-important swing-state category, identifying where the polls are too close to call, the sites agree on only five true undecideds: Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Beyond that, fissures appear.

Five of the six sites we're tracking put Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania in that tossup category, with only The New York Times claiming the three lean to Kerry. The breakdown is the same for Nevada, but here the Times lists it as a Bush leaner. (E&P isn't including The Philadelphia Inquirer in this survey, as its electoral map isn't being updated.)

Michigan is up for grabs at five of the six sites, with only the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and The Boston Globe labeling it a Kerry leaner.

Other tossup states and the number of sites that list them that way are: Arkansas (4), Missouri (4), Maine (3), New Jersey (3), Oregon (3), West Virginia (3), Arizona (2), Colorado (2), Hawaii (2), and Virginia (1).

In comparing the maps, some states are marked as strongly in favor of a candidate on one site, leaning to him at another, and undecided at others. For example: Hawaii is a strong Kerry supporter at The Washington Post and The Boston Globe; a Kerry leaner at the Sun-Sentinel, and a tossup at the Los Angeles Times and USA Today.

Looking at the all-wrapped-up side, the six Web sites agree that the following states are strong supporters of President Bush and will send their votes his way on Nov. 2: Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming. That's 17 states with a total of 138 electoral votes.

On the Kerry side, the sites agree that the following states will give their votes to the Democrat: Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont. Then there's California, which the Globe, for some reason, lists as only leaning to Kerry. The five other sites put California solidly in favor of the Democrat. Adding those 55 votes gives Kerry 136 rock-solid votes to Bush's 138.