By: Jennifer Saba Along with its uncensored assessment of circulation trends, Deutsche Bank Securities did find some promising signs on the horizon for the newspaper industry in its latest report issued on Friday.
Analyst Paul Ginocchio points out that the rapid growth of other paid circulation (the category where third party sales are counted) ?is having a positive effect on readership" and that "readership is increasingly becoming how newspaper advertising is sold ... We hear this both from the advertisers and the publishers."
However, that very trend in ?other? circ also produced some alarm in the same report, as E&P observed on Friday.
So-called ?quality? circulation -- that is, circulation that represents 50% or more of the total price -- is slipping fast. That, in addition to the circulation misstatements reported by three major companies and the overall tepid advertising recovery, might make 2005 ad rate negations tougher than usual, Deutsche Bank said.
The investment firm analyzed 40 of the top US newspapers representing 23% of total US 2003 circulation and 30% of Sunday circulation. The report highlights which papers rely increasingly on circulation that is less than 50% paid.
Based on three reporting periods -- March 2003, September 2003, and March 2004 -- the chart illustrates the total change (usually for the worse) in more than 50% individually paid circulation. The papers are listed from "worst" to "best" though the analysis does not take into account price increases, economic conditions or the impact of certain news events.
At the top of the list in losses, based on drop in over 50% circ, is the San Jose (Calif.) Mercury News, which has gone from a change of -1.6% (March 2003) to -12% (Sept. 2003) to -16.4% (March 2004). On its heels is The Miami Herald, which experienced a change of -0.8%, -4.5%, and -14.7% respectively. The Denver Newspaper Co. is listed third at -4.1%, -7.5% and -11.8%. The Los Angeles Times comes in fourth, at -1.6%, -5.1%, and -9%. The Buffalo (N.Y.) News takes the fifth spot at -1.6%, -6.3%, and -7.8%.
Some papers that have reversed the trend toward over 50% losses are The Washington Post at -9.2%, -3.%, and -3.9%; The Sun of Baltimore, -4.8%, -3.3%, and -3.1%; and The Sacramento (Calif.) Bee at -2.1%, 1.2% and -0.3%.
The top five, or ?the best? papers are as follows: the New York Post, 9.6%, 11.2%, and 7.5%; The Press Enterprise of Riverside, Calif., at 3.3%, 2.4%, 1.1%; the North County Times of Escondido, Calif., 5%, -1.4% and .5%; The Raleigh (N.C.) News and Observer, 0%, -0.3% and 0.4%, and the Sacramento Bee.
For a full copy of the report, e-mail Paul Ginocchio at paul.ginocchio@db.com.
Comments
No comments on this item Please log in to comment by clicking here