Rules of the road for newsrooms grappling with prediction markets

Richard J. Tofel

Prediction markets, where people bet on the probability of future developments of all sorts as if they were securities or sporting events (choose your metaphor) are a big and growing business. They are also moving into newsrooms, with deals recently made to feature particular markets’ data by CNN, CNBC, Dow Jones (including the Wall Street Journal), Fox, Twitter and Yahoo Finance.

This week, rather than get dragged into the debates about whether this is good or bad for society, or whether prediction markets should be regulated more like financial markets or like gambling, I want to try to derive what the rules of the road should be in this emerging sphere for newsrooms.

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