SAGE Advice: Holiday Spending Outlook Brightens

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By: Leo J. Shapiro, Erik Shapiro and Steve Yahn Falling gasoline prices this month have dented stagflation worries, boosting Christmas spending intentions. If the trend holds, that could be good for newspaper ad sales.

Our September 2006 Leo J. Shapiro national consumer survey finds the percent worried about stagflation plunged to only 18% in September from 37% in August. Negative statistics in the news about the economy were barely published before consumers turned optimistic. President Bush?s approval rating, meanwhile, jumped seven points to 37% in September from August?s 30% -- which was the lowest reading since he took office.

Two in ten (20%) expect to spend more for Christmas this year and 43% expect to spend less. Still, this outlook for Christmas spending is up from last month and the best at this time of year since September 2003.

Volatility is a sword that can cut both ways. Numbers can plunge down just as fast as they can soar upwards.

Advertisers must make decisions now about an uncertain future. As the Christmas season approaches, it is important for newspapers to inform not only the public but also their advertisers.

Keep an eye on this space. In this volatile season, we promise to keep a close eye on national trends and report them to our readers as quickly as we can.

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