SAGE Advice: Online Political Ad Dollars Will Continue to 'Explode'

By: Leo J. Shapiro and Steve Yahn What does the 2006 election hold in store for newspaper ad space sales? In terms of "red media" and "blue media," we find that newspaper publishers are to Democrats what broadcasters are to Republicans.

According to our Leo J. Shapiro and Associates March 2006 national poll, people who say they are inclined to vote for a Democratic Party candidate for president in 2008 -- compared to those inclined to vote for a Republican -- in the past seven-day period are more likely to have read:

* A local newspaper (78% versus 70%)

* A national newspaper (24% versus 15%)

* A news magazine (21% versus 16%)

* Or used the Internet for news-gathering purposes (43% versus 38%)

In the past seven days, people inclined to vote Republican are more likely than those who are Democratic inclined to have watched television news (87% versus 83%) and listened to news radio (62% versus 51%).

Crunching some data from a study by media research firm PQ Media published in USA Today, we find that -- in grabbing political ad dollar market share -- red media (broadcast, cable television, and radio) dominate blue media (newspapers and the Internet) at present.

In the coming few years, however, according to a wide array of studies and commentaries, ad dollars (both political and non-political) will flow more and more to the (blue) Internet and less and less to (red) television.

At present, and on average, red media (broadcast, cable television, and radio) receive about 22 political ad dollars for every one dollar spent by political ad buyers on blue media (newspapers and the Internet).

Comparing the years 2000 and 2004, the PQ Media data showed that the total political ad spending in all media increased by 123% -- to $2.7 billion from $1.2 billion. But newspapers' share of election media spending remained "virtually flat" -- 2.1% in 2000 and 2.2% in 2004.

Newspapers and Internet -- blue media -- take in only 3% of political ad spending together. But while spending on political ads for newspapers remains flat, the spending for online political ads is increasing explosively.

Spending for online political advertising, a miniscule $3 million in 2000, soared 733% to $25 million in 2004.

Projecting forward to the major elections of 2006 and 2008 in all parts of the country, online political ad spending is likely to continue to grow at an explosive rate.

But newspapers have built some of the nation's best Web sites, giving them the opportunity at all levels of political races -- as well as for issue-driven referendums -- to offer powerful advertising and promotion mediums.

This is especially true in the realm of "package message" deals that allow political candidates and their supporters fresh and effective means of reaching established constituencies and new supporters through a combination of print and Web advertising and promotion vehicles.

Media Audience Measurement

We reported in our last column ("How to Drive Home Some Hybrid Car Ads") on a study of 19 automotive dealer ad buyers.

As a second step towards exploring the quality of media audience measurement, we interviewed media buyers in 30 advertising agency and media buying companies to find out how newspapers rank with them -- relative to other media -- in providing audience data that enable them to reach their target markets efficiently.

Almost all the 30 media buyers we interviewed ranked newspaper ad sellers as less helpful than sellers of television ads in providing audience data they can use to reach target markets efficiently.

We will continue to spot-check media buying sectors of the economy to look for anyone who feels newspaper ad sellers do an acceptable job of providing audience data useful for ad buyers.

Cracks in the "Chinese Wall"

There is an increasing tendency for ad and promotional copy on the one side and editorial and news copy on the other side to morph through the so-called "Chinese Wall" and into each other.

In the last presidential election, a dramatic instance of ad copy morphing into news copy happened when the "Swift Boat Ads" deriding Kerry's war record were most widely disseminated as news, not ads.

And now we find editorial copy morphing into promotional copy.

According to an article in the March 16 New York Times, calls by Democrats to impeach Bush -- and particularly the move by U.S. Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) to censure Bush over the domestic eavesdropping flap -- are stirring Republican fears of a Democratic congressional coup this fall.

In a March 15 editorial headlined "The Impeachment Agenda," the Wall Street Journal, tongue firmly in cheek, said: "We'd like to congratulate the Wisconsin Democrat on his candor."

Editorial copy became promotional material when the Republican National Committee distributed the WSJ editorial to its e-mail list of 15 million or so. According to Republican spokesperson Brian Jones, this e-mail campaign generated more responses than anything the RNC has sent out in the past several months.

Approaching the 2006 elections, and those of 2008 beyond, we will have our finger on the political pulse of the nation, but you -- in the media -- have the responsibility to manage that pulse.