Single-Copy Sales Down Across U.S.

By: Lucia Moses Single-copy sales are down at papers across the country, causing newspaper executives to wonder if the papers themselves are causing part of the decline through new circulation-building strategies.

When the September publisher's statements are released in the Audit Bureau of Circulations FAS-FAX Nov. 3, they'll show industry circ to be flat to up slightly, predicted Rich Randles, president of Anderson, Randles & Associates Inc., a circulation consultancy. "Home-delivery at many newspapers is down slightly, but folks are working like crazy to make up some of those numbers with third-party programs," he said.

But are third-party sales, in which an advertiser or sponsor buys papers for delivery to non-subscribers, eroding retail and newsstand sales?

"At some point, you're going to be reaching someone who may have been your occasional or single-copy buyer," said Valecia Quinn, single-copy director at The Cincinnati Enquirer and president of the Newspaper Association of America's Circulation Federation.

The declines are all the more significant given the increasing importance of single-copy sales. Daily single-copy sales represent about 20% of industry circulation -- up from 15.7% in 1998. Increased online use and declining interest in the war in Iraq also explained the declines, circ executives and analysts said in interviews. Long-term, consumers' increasing propensity for one-stop shopping also could be hurting single-copy sales as people visit fewer stores.

John Murray, vice president of circulation marketing for the NAA, asked attendees at an NAA Circulation Federation board meeting in New Orleans two weeks ago for a show of hands by those who had grown single-copy in the six months ended Sept. 30. No one volunteered. "When the war ended," Murray said, "the bottom dropped out."

Randles said this hit metro papers disproportionately hard. He estimated they would register a 2% to 3% decline in Sunday single-copy sales in part due to the dropoff in Sunday classified ads, a big reader draw. Results vary company by company, but in general, most circ gains in the coming FAS-FAX are likely to be muted.

Knight Ridder's eight biggest markets, excluding Detroit, will all report increases for the 2003 calendar year, helped by continued selective home-delivery discounts and Sunday single-copy price cuts in some of those markets, said Polk Laffoon IV, vice president of corporate relations. He said Knight Ridder will likely report slight daily and Sunday declines for all 31 dailies combined for 2003, though, reflecting the impact of price increases in Detroit and a system conversion in Charlotte, N.C.

Lee Enterprises Inc. expected its 44 dailies to be "up a bit" on Sunday but "flattish" daily compared with previous pub statements, said Circulation Vice President Nancy L. Green.

Through September, Pulitzer Inc.'s 12 non-metro dailies will be up slightly overall on the daily side and down about 1% Sunday, said Mark Contreras, senior vice president at Pulitzer Inc., noting that new retention strategies haven't fully taken effect. The company is considering linking those papers' circulation growth to top executives' pay, he said, reflecting the belief that growing circulation is "one of the top three or four things a newspaper has to do to stay healthy long-term."

But building circulation will only get harder in the spring FAS-FAX. By that point, circulators will have felt the effects of the new national do-not-call list, which is shrinking the potential customer pool they may contact by phone.

Randles put forth another worry: If papers are too successful with third-party deals, watch out -- the ABC could limit the number of third-party copies papers can count as a portion of overall circulation, if advertisers worry that they are diluting the value of the paper. Said Randles, "It's still paid circulation that most major advertisers are interested in."