Slim Declines Expected in New FAS-FAX

By: Jennifer Saba In a little more than a week, the Audit Bureau of Circulations will release the latest circ numbers, for the six-month period ending September 2004. It will be the first FAS-FAX report to come out after the past summer's scandals.

Most industry experts and analysts aren't anticipating any goblins to pop out. Rather, many are predicting the figures will hold fairly steady, with only slim declines in the overall number.

Also a positive: Increasingly there is less concern that others will come forward with circ problems. Paul Ginocchio, an analyst with Deutsche Bank, told The New York Times, "If I'm a chief executive of a public company, my window of opportunity to announce a circulation scandal has pretty much closed."

Many companies are holding the latest figures close to the vest until Monday. The Times reported in an article that its circulation edged up slightly, by 0.2%, or 1.12 million daily copies, and 0.2% on Sundays, with 1.68 million copies. The Boston Globe made similar percentage gains, with 451,471 daily copies and 707,813 Sunday copies.

McClatchy's CEO, Gary Pruitt, told analysts during a Q3 earnings call last week that he expects an overall rise in circulation. The Times noted that the Star Tribune in Minneapolis and The Sacramento Bee, both McClatchy-owned papers, reported small increases. The Star Tribune's daily circ went up 0.2% to 381,094 copies and that Sunday increased 0.1% to 678,648 copies. The Bee gained a 1.3% increase in daily copies with 293,705 but dropped 1% on Sunday to 346,742.