Study: U.S. Newspaper Biz Expected to Lose $25 Billion by 2013

By: Jennifer Saba The newspaper industry in North America is forecast to shed some $13 billion in revenue by 2013, according to new research from PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC).

The losses are expected to stem mainly from a drain in print advertising revenue. Total newspaper advertising will fall by a cumulative 32.7% during the next three years, according to the latest PriceWaterhouse Global Entertainment and Media Outlook: 2009-2013 report. Only in 2012 will advertising start to reverse, rebounding modestly.

Print advertising is expected to fall the most from $36.7 billion in 2008 to $24.3 billion in 2013.

Online advertising revenue is anticipated to decline over the next two years. PWC expects online ad revenue to grow to $3.7 billion in 2013 -- a 2.5% increase when compounded annually from 2008.

The newspaper market in the United States is much weaker than in Canada, the report notes. In Canada, the competitive newspaper climate, slower rate of circulation declines and the rise of free papers have helped that country.

In the U.S., however, the firm estimated that steep declines would continue through 2012. By 2013 the U.S. newspaper market will have lost $25 billion from its peak in 2005.

The numbers for print advertising revenue declines are staggering, especially with regard to the classified category. According to PWC, recruitment advertising revenue is expected to plunge 50% in 2009. Real estate is anticipated to fall 45%, and automotive, which has been on a steady decline for several years, is expected to be down 28%. And yet, PWC anticipates that by 2011, classified revenue will have turned the corner -- though nowhere near the levels of growth seen in the past.

Put another way, PWC said that during a five-year period ending 2013, recruitment classified advertising revenue will have lost 62.5%, real estate, 53.1% and automotive 49.2%.

Turning to retail advertising revenue in the U.S., that category is expected to drop 10% in 2010. By 2013, print advertising revenue is forecasted at $13 billion, down 6.9% on a compound annual basis from 2008.

Print national advertising revenue in the U.S. will decrease to $3.5 billion in 2013 from $5.8 billion in 2008 (down 9.9% when compounded annually).

Online advertising revenue in the U.S. used to be the one bright spot. Not until 2013, predicts PWC. ?We expect that an expanding economy will translate into growing online spending and project a return to double-digit growth in 2013,? the report said. By that year, online advertising should reach $3.5 billion, up 2.3% on a compound annual basis form $3.1 billion in 2008.