Sullivan: Nate Silver Will Make One Firm Prediction About the Midterms. Most Journalists Won’t Want to Hear It.

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After the roller-coaster ride of 2016’s election night, have journalists and political junkies learned not to let conventional wisdom substitute for hard knowledge?

Nate Silver — the closest thing there is to a celebrity in the arcane field of statistical journalism — is not wildly optimistic about that.

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