By: Greg Mitchell As we did with the Iowa caucuses, we blogged the New Hampshire primary results and reactions all night here at E&P, with Obama struggling and McCain and Clinton now winners.
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7:00 AM : Maureen Dowd at The New York Times still caustic about "the tracks of my tears" moment for Hillary, while noting it had been pivotal in winning back older female voters:
"There was a poignancy about the moment, seeing Hillary crack with exhaustion from decades of yearning to be the principal rather than the plus-one. But there was a whiff of Nixonian self-pity about her choking up. What was moving her so deeply was her recognition that the country was failing to grasp how much it needs her. In a weirdly narcissistic way, she was crying for us. But it was grimly typical of her that what finally made her break down was the prospect of losing."
1:00 AM: Chuck Todd, political director at NBC, seems to back the "race" angle in the poll fiasco: as noted below, some famous examples of whites telling pollsters one thing and voting otherwise. Asked why this didn't happen in Iowa, he points out that it was a caucus vote, with people having to declare themselves openly. In New Hampshire they could pull the curtain and vote privately.
12:30 AM: Andrew Sullivan (a big Obama backer) at his blog at TheAtlantic.com:
"There was a backlash by women against the media's coronation of Obama. There may well have been something about Clinton implying that she was an older woman who was being passed over by a less experienced man for a job. That may well have resonated with some women, especially after she seemed actually human in the last two days. Once Clinton was weak enough to ask for their help, they gave it to her. But that's not the kind of thing that happens twice. And she's the front-runner again. For a while."
11:55: At New York Times' site, David Brooks makes a rare blog appearance, listing 10 things that happened in New Hampshire, including: "Crying works. I have no data to back this up. But Hillary?s human moment must have helped. Expect Romney to cry a river of tears at the next press conference."
11:45: Will Bunch of the Philadelphia Daily News, at his Attytood blog there, proposes one reason for the polls being so far off: The time-tested phenomenon of white voters telling pollsters they are about to vote for a black man -- while knowing that when the time comes they might very well not do it. Here is link:
http://www.attytood.com
11:25: Tim Russert calls Obama-Clinton another "Ali-Frazier." But who will be Ali? He lost the first fight and then won next two -- then beat George Foreman to take the crown.
11:15: Hillary appears and like McCain also mainly reads her speech. Very somber and not fiery but strong in its way. Maybe she is shocked herself. Her own polls showed her losing.
11:10: Jon Stewart, as often the case, outpundits the real pundits. Has a bit on "The Daily Show" -- taped hours ago -- making fun of those who predicted Hillary's "meltdown" over her "crying" episode. He shows clip of her getting a little emotional yesterday and comments, "That's IT? That has wrecked her candidacy? Are you f---ing kidding me?
10:50: Obama comes out and asks crowd to clap for Hillary. Some do, a little. He then says he did much better than anyone expected two weeks ago (though certainly not two days ago).
Clinton managers elated, say it is two-person race, goodbye Edwards.
10:40: NBC calls it for Clinton. Lock up the pundits and pollsters! Tom Brokaw reads headlines from today's papers, such as New York Post's aimed at Hillary: PANIC.
10:35: Tim Russert officially declares it a seismic shift for Clinton in last day or so, can' t say why. Brian Williams agrees it's huge victory for Hillary even if she loses. Russert sees huge gender divide, "and that means this race goes on big time." Showing "emotion" yesterday now seen as key -- after being derided.
10:25: Edwards comes out. Should be rule against using a tune as campaign theme after it has become TV commercial theme -- in this case, Mellencamp. Edwards needs tonight to offer real rationale for his campaign but is giving basic stump speech yet again -- mentioning the Sarkisian girl and others. Gave much the same talk just five nights ago on another losing night. Says two states down and 48 states to go. Points out that 99% of people have not been heard and he is in race "until the convention."
Obama still down by 4000 votes with 63% in. Fire the pollsters and pundits!
10:10: Chris Matthews, who was wrong over and over on Iowa night, now is predicting that the Clintons will come out before final results to say great night for them and hope people then go to bed, so if she loses, not so bad.
Pat Buchanan says, "Pollsters all wrong. Press all wrong." Rachel Maddow says many at popular Talking Points Memo blog blaming Chris Matthews for pushing votes to Clinton by bashing her so much. He pretends he's never heard of it.
Obama still down by 2% but some talk of Hanover college vote about to come in. But 60% in. And youth vote maybe not turning out so much.
9:55: Obama now closer at 39% to 37%, and New York Times at its Caucus blog says some college towns haven't reported yet. But 51% in.
Much more gabbing on MSNBC about Clinton and women and how maybe she may have now learned that being a woman might actually help, so push it, baby.
9:35: Obama closing, 39% to 36%, with 47% in, but Hillary clearly already has saved herself. David Gregory says GOP leaders now saying McCain front runner. But only up 6% on Romney in raw vote. Chris Matthews admits Hillary making him and other pundits look bad.
Exit polls interesting. One in three say they made up minds since Iowa -- and Hillary beat Obama slightly in that. Hillary topped Obama among women 47-34 after Obama got them in Iowa,and women made up 57% of total. Looks like Bill Kristol wrong again in suggesting Clinton's "crying" yesterday would be seen as fake and doom her.
9:30: McCain comes out to chants of "Mac is back" even though no one has ever called him Mac in his life, he has said. McCain says he is too old to call himself "comeback kid" but will settle on "comeback" part anyway. Closes to Chuck Berry and "Johnny B Good." Joe Scarborough mocks him for reading the speech off sheets of paper, and awkwardly -- as if pages had gotten out of order. Others agree that he missed a big moment. Romney had earlier given a fairly good account of himself.
9:10: Hillary still leads by 4% with 34% in. No talk of dropping out now. Edwards languishing -- did not move up at all.
Huckabee speaks, no Chuck Norris and his gleaming teeth tonight. He does mention that it is Elvis's birthday -- looking for the Elvis vote in South Carolina?
8:55: Pundits in shock -- Hillary still leads by 4% with 21% in. Perhaps they were all wrong and the "crying" yesterday actually helped her, didn't hurt. Sure looks like it didn't hurt.
8:30 PM: Is a shocker in the wind? Hillary increases raw vote to 40% to 35% with 14% in.
David Gregory on NBC wonders if McCain win solely due to indies, and he will struggle soon in places they can't vote in primary, such as Florida. Also, Romney will be favored in home state of Michigan. But over on CNN, Bill Schneider says exit polls show McCain actually did slightly better among Republicans than indies. So much for conventional wisdom.
8:10 PM : NBC calls it for McCain. He leads raw vote by about 9%. Hillary actually widens raw vote at 40% to 36% now with 12% in. Ralph Reed on CNN calls McCain "Lazarus." Jack Cafferty predicts immigration will yet come back to haunt McCain and the sinking economy too.
8:05 PM ET: In something of a shock, polls close and NBC does not call for Obama -- too close. GOP also too close. Now question is, if Hillary finishes within 5% points, is she "comeback kid"? Chris Matthews bellows no, Tom Brokaw disagrees. New York Times headline: Obama and Hillary Locked in Tight Contest.
Hillary up 38% to 36% in raw vote. NBC reported at Obama heqdquarters says a bit of "nailbiting" going on.
7:50 PM : Nine percent of vote in, Hillary leads Obama 38% to 36%, with Edwards at 17%. Will this be her high point? McCain up on Romney 37% to 28%, and Huckabee at 12%.
7:40 PM: Polls still open. Tim Russert on NBC won't say what exit polls reveals about he actual candidate vote but does say that a whopping 43% of the Democratic vote came from indepedendents, and 38% on the GOP side. This is an enormous boost for Obama and McCain.
Somehow 1% of the vote has been counted, and Obama has a crushing 2 ballot lead on Hillary, 344-342.
7:20 PM: Interesting report from Patrick Healy at The New York Times' blog The Caucus:
James Carville, Bill Clinton?s former political strategist, has written a one-page memo to Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and her aides urging that she come out of the New Hampshire primary with a fighting message that she is bouncing back from her Iowa loss and will challenge Senator Barack Obama in state after state with an inspirational message of change and readiness for the presidency.
Mr. Carville declined to provide a copy of the memo tonight, but several advisers who had read the memo said that it did not recommend any surprising changes in strategy. They said Mr. Carville did not suggest skipping any key state nominating contests, such as Nevada and South Carolina, but these advisers added that no final decisions have been made about the game plan in those states.
Clinton advisers also said tonight that a long-time friend of the Clintons, Roy Spence, an advertising executive in Texas, is going to play a greater role in the campaign going forward.
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