The Grinch Wavers: Still Hope for Holiday Retail Surge

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By: E&P Staff While holiday-season retail sales have not exactly soared this year, adding further worries to the 2005 ad forecasts, there is some hope in the latest Gallup Poll released today. ?[C]onsumers' holiday spending intentions have jumped up significantly," Gallup concluded, "suggesting the possibility of a more robust holiday retail season than some may have anticipated.?

However, Gallup notes the context: ?Early holiday sales reports have not been encouraging for the nation's retailers. Many companies have already been forced to significantly decrease prices while increasing their advertising and other promotions. Overall, consumers are seen as less than enthusiastic and as being highly price-conscious spenders this holiday season.?

But has that much changed from a year ago? A close look at the numbers shows that this month, 37% of consumers rated current economic conditions as "good" or "excellent" while 19% said they are "poor." This is up slightly from November ratings and virtually identical to those of a year ago.

Gallup also reports that it asked consumers in both November and December to tell them roughly how much they thought they would personally spend on Christmas gifts this year. ?There has been a significant increase in the resulting average amount over the last month,? Gallup reveals. ?In November, Americans said they would be spending an average of $730. Now, in the Dec. 5-8 poll, the average amount has jumped to $862, a substantial increase. Although Americans' estimates tend to get larger as Christmas approaches, this is a bigger increase than seen in previous years, and suggests at least the possibility for a recovery in spending in the last weeks before Christmas.?

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