The Lowdown on Next Year's Business Outlook, from Goldman Sachs

By: Jennifer Saba It's December, it's New York, it must be dueling media conference time.

For your convenience, both Credit Suisse First Boston and UBS again scheduled their 2005 outlook conferences for next week. On Wednesday Dec. 8, newspaper observers can run to and fro between the Grand Hyatt, hosting UBS, and the Plaza, home to CSFB, to hear executives from Gannett, Knight Ridder, Belo, and more discuss their predictions for next year.

Goldman Sachs, an investment firm not holding a conference next week, put together a handy primer on what to expect for 2005. And judging from analyst Peter Appert's views, it's not much.

In fact, he goes so far as to lay out a grid with an overview of the positives and negatives to the upcoming year. Five negatives outweigh two lonely positives.

What Goldman likes: tight cost control and heavy share repurchasing.

What Goldman finds dismaying: sloppy ad trends, ad pricing under pressure, circulation revenues down to flat, broadcast revenues soft, and 4Q and 2005 estimates likely to have a negative bias.

For company specifics, Knight Ridder will unveil Art Brisbane and Hilary Schneider, the newly appointed senior vice presidents and potential successors to CEO Tony Ridder. Also expect investors to "quiz" Brisbane and Schneider about their new roles.

Goldman Sachs believes Gannett's company forecast will "fall at the high end of our range of 3% to 5% newspaper ad growth with a focus on maintaining cost growth at or below that level."

Dow Jones is still wobbly after ad volumes "have remained surprisingly volatile in 2004," Goldman says. The launch of the weekend edition of The Wall Street Journal and acquisition of MarketWatch may dilute earnings in 2005, according to the firm.

McClatchy will continue to shine "based on healthy growth in California and an aggressive focus on cost management," Goldman said.

Due to softness in the movie and technology categories The New York Times Co. will have a difficult 4Q. Goldman expects the company to take a more cautious approach in 2005 in regards to boosting ad rates.

Executives at E.W. Scripps will most likely focus on their broadcast segment, which now accounts for roughly one-third of revenues.

And, to no one's surprise, expect executives from Tribune to talk about regaining credibility in light of the Newsday fracas (and to a lesser extent the huge hit in circ at the Los Angeles Times) and implementing cost control measures.