Despite Likely Primary Win, Obama Actually Trails in Delegates -- A 'Super' Problem?

By: E&P Staff Lost in the assumption of another Obama victory today, in New Hampshire, and his new "frontrunner" status, is the fact that piling up actual delegates is actually the name of the game -- and Hillary Clinton is likely well ahead in that right now.

That's thanks to the so-called "super-delegates" who get a chair and a vote at the summer convention.

Here's part of how the Financial Times describes it today.

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To win the nomination, a candidate must secure 2,025 votes at the convention in August; superdelegates hold 796 of those votes.

So far, according to an analysis by CNN, the New York senator and former first lady has secured endorsements from 154 super?delegates, compared with 50 who have pledged to support Mr Obama. Thirty three delegates have come out for John Edwards, who is also fighting for the Democratic nomination.

Given Mrs Clinton's disappointing finish in Iowa, the race for the Democratic ticket could soon turn into a long slog of delegate counting ahead of the party's convention. Mr Obama's campaign has created a seemingly unstoppable movement that could lead to big wins in coming weeks. But hard-won delegate support in the early small states, who send relatively few delegates to the convention, are only marginally helpful when it comes to amassing delegate tallies.

Mrs Clinton's campaign machine has the finances and establishment support to keep the race competitive heading into "Super Tuesday" on February 5, when dozens of states will simultaneously hold their primaries.

Although her momentum appears to be slowing, Mrs. Clinton commanded a 32 percentage point lead over Mr. Obama in the delegate-rich state of New York, where she serves as senator, according to polls conducted in December. This was before Mr. Obama's sweeping Iowa victory, however. In California, Mrs Clinton enjoys a 27 percentage point lead over her rival.

Moreover, support for Mrs Clinton from politicians such as Jon Corzine, governor of New Jersey, New York governor Eliot Spitzer and 10 fellow senators, such as Chuck Schumer, are a testament to the fact that she is still the establishment candidate. As such she can rely on their networks to turn out votes in her favour.