By: Joe Nicholson Former NAA Chief Economist Predicts Continued Boom
Miles E. Groves, the former chief economist of the Newspaper
Association of America (NAA), has launched a new quarterly e-mail
forecast - whose initial offering provides some of Groves'
explanations for economic and advertising trends.
Groves' e-mail newsletter, called 'Economic Notes,' predicts the
Federal Reserve System will navigate the 2000 economy between the
perils of inflation on one side and recession on the other.
Commenting on the NAA's preliminary estimates of advertising in the
first quarter, Groves wrote that the 18.7% surge in national ads
may hide some decline in dot-com ads.
'The economy is driving classified,' Groves wrote, referring to a
6.7% classified advertising increase at a time when Web hypesters
were still crowing that the Net would quickly gobble up newspapers'
classified lunch. Newspapers' strength in classified 'could suggest
that employers are moving back to newspapers,' he noted. 'It could
also suggest the online alternatives and print verticals have not
filled the need.'
More ominously, said Groves, 'The disturbing item is the continued
weakness of our local retail category,' which is estimated to have
increased only 0.5% in the first quarter. He said some of the blame
was caused by the shift from display ads to pre-printed inserts,
which results in less revenue for newspapers.
Groves is putting out the newsletter under the auspices of the
Bethesda, Md.-based Barry Group, where he is senior vice president
and chief economist. The free newsletter is being sent to several
hundred publishers and industry leaders; anyone seeking a subscription
can e-mail Groves at mgroves@barrygrp.com.
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Joe Nicholson (jnicholson@editorandpublisher.com) is an associate
editor for Editor & Publisher magazine.
(c) Copyright 2000, Editor & Publisher
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