Some midterm polls were on target, but finding which pollsters to believe can be tough

The outcomes confirmed anew that election polling is an uneven and high-risk pursuit


Pollsters indulged in breezy self-congratulation in the aftermath of the 2022 midterm elections. Pre-election polls, they declared, did well overall in signaling outcomes of high-profile U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races.

In an allusion to polling’s misfires of 2016 and 2020, Joshua Dyck, director of the opinion research center at UMass Lowell, asserted as the 2022 results became known: “The death of polling has been greatly exaggerated.”

Nate Silver took to Twitter to proclaim the 2022 midterms were “one of the most accurate years for polling ever.”

Yet, a sense of doubt lingered ...

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